The Beginning of an Economic Recovery

Monday, August 17, 2020   /   by Janelle Endres

The Beginning of an Economic Recovery

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The news these days seems to have a mix of highs and lows.
We may hear that an economic recovery is starting,
but we’ve also seen some of the worst economic data in the history of our country.

The challenge today is to understand exactly what’s going on
and what it means relative to the road ahead. We’ve talked
before about what experts expect in the second half of this year,
and today that progress largely hinges upon the continued course of the virus.

A recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists noted,
A strong economic recovery depends on effective and sustained
containment of Covid-19.
” Given the uncertainty around the virus,
we can also see what economists are forecasting for GDP in the third
quarter of this year (see graph below):
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Overwhelmingly, economists are projecting GDP growth in the third
quarter of 2020, with 5 of the 9 experts indicating over 20% growth

Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley puts it this way:

“Indeed, the ‘worst ever’ GDP reading could be followed by the ‘best ever’ growth in the third quarter.”

As we look forward, we can expect consumer spending to improve as
well. According to Opportunity Insights, as of August 1, consumer
spending
 was down just 7.8% as compared to January 1 of this year.
Bottom Line
An economic recovery is beginning to happen throughout the country.
While there are still questions that need to be answered about the
road ahead, we can expect to see improvement this quarter.

  homebuyers, homesellers, housing market update

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